A Gambler’s Guide to Super Bowl 53
Just one game left in the 2019 NFL season! Some of you may have heard of it, most common folk refer to it as, “The Super Bowl.” I like to refer to it as “The One Football Game Per Year My Girlfriend Doesn’t Hate Because it is an Event with Plenty of Appetizers and Social Interaction Bowl.” But I’ll allow you loyal Throat Culture fans to refer to it however you want.
This year brings together two very different teams. We have a white-collar city vs a blue-collar city, new guard vs old guard, flashy hot-boi young offensive guru coach vs grizzled hard-ass defensive genius coach, 2-time playoff game winning QB vs 5-time Super Bowl champion QB. Regardless of any comparisons I think I speak for everyone when I say, FUCK THEM BOTH! One franchise has done enough winning for a century and the other one is a roster of hired guns with a fan base that consists of the most pretentious humans on earth.
In my opinion the most remarkable part about this Patriots team is that Belichick has gotten them to believe that the greatest dynasty in the history of the NFL is somehow the underdog in all of this. Granted they are fielding a roster with 6 of its starters being first round picks (compared to the Rams 10) but this is a franchise that has done nothing but win for the better part of TWO FRIGGIN DECADES. Thankfully, I am not a Jet fan and therefore not a Patriot hater, my beloved Giants have a perfect 2-0 Super Bowl record against the Belichick/Brady duo. But even I have Patriot fatigue. Also, losing a small fortune on the Chiefs in the AFC championship doesn’t help. Unfortunately, I still think the Patriots win this one, I am predicting this is both Brady and Belichick’s final Super Bowl victory and the one that solidifies them each as the GOAT at their respective positions. Now get out of the way you bullies and give some other teams a chance!
On to the most fun part of the “one football game per year that my girlfriend doesn’t hate because it is an event with plenty of appetizers and social interactions Bowl” which is all the bets available to the public. A degenerate’s dream! Time to become a hundredaire!
POINT SPREAD- This line opened with the Patriots -1.5 and since moved to -2.5. This means the sharps out in Vegas hammered this -1.5. Now, there is no science behind this but to those of you novices out there most of the time it is the professionals who dictate lines and line movement. They know the game best and they tend to put in most of the early money.Regular Joes wait until a day or two before the game once we’ve broken open all our piggy banks and pulled all the cash out of our jeans from the previous Saturday night to put in our measly bets. The late public push is why you’ll often see a line shift back towards what it opened at. Moving the line a full point means some serious doll hairs on the Pats at -1.5.
MY BET- Buy the point and take the Pats -1.5
OVER/UNDER- Much like the point spread this had some significant movement within the first week. Opened up at 58 and is now sitting at 56.5. Point and a half=significant! Patriots are going to run the shit out of the ball to keep the ball away from the Rams high powered offense and help keep Brady upright and fresh for the fourth quarter. Also, don’t sleep on some early jitters from Jared Goff much like he had in the NFC Championship game. Slow start=good for the under.
MY BET- Ride the under!
One of the interesting props I saw was “Will a team score 3 unanswered times?” I don’t know if my site is fucked up or something but I have this at -240 for YES and +190 for NO. This counts for any score, offensive, defensive, TD or safety.But still, 3 times? Gotta love any bet that you can get a positive return on your money!
MY BET- NO, gimme that $95!!!!
TOTAL TD’s in game O 6.5 -140 U 6.5 +110 obviously the numbers here are leaning towards over 6.5 total TD’s (that means 7 or more) but again, I like those positive return bets. I’m guessing Brady throws for 2 and Michel and White get one rushing each and the Rams are held to 2 total TD’s
MY BET- U 6.5
LARGEST LEAD OF GAME for either team- O 16.5 +110 U 16.5 -140. Going off of my previous 3 bets I am also going with the under on this. 17 points? Idk man I just don’t see it. Patriots play notoriously close Super Bowls and I don’t see the Rams just coming out guns blazing after two relatively dull showings in playoff games thus far.
MY BET-U 16.5
MARGIN OF VICTORY- this is a fun bet that can generate some serious ROI. I like putting a couple small bets on this one because if you take 3 and hit one you still make some money. If the Pats win by 1-3 points, a $25 bet yields $143. $25 on 4-6 yields $200 and $25 on 7-10 yields $160.
MY BET- $25 on each and hope for 4-6!!
SUPER BOWL MVP- To me there are only two bets to make here. One is Tom Brady (even money), if the Patriots win Tom will most likely be the MVP because often the MVP defaults to the winning teams QB unless one player really steals the show. The other is Aaron Donald (+1750) because he has a huge payout and much like Super Bowl 50 and Von Miller’s ability to make Cam Newton and the entire Panthers offensive line his bitch; if Donald and that Rams defensive front can hit Brady enough they could win this game and he can be the MVP.
MY BET- $25 on Brady and Donald
Now on to the fun ones that most of America tends to play
COIN TOSS- 52 Super Bowls have been played and the coin toss result has been 25 heads and 27 tails. After a 5-year run of heads there was a 4-year run of tails before last years resulted in Heads. However, there is a huge caveat in this prop bet…TAILS NEVER FAILS!
MY BET- TAILS (interesting add-on: the Pats always pick Heads and will be calling the toss as the AFC is the away team if you want to bet if they will be right or not in addition to the heads/tails call)
EVERYONES FAVORITE….NATIONAL ANTHEM- Saved this one for last because you don’t have to be a football fan to yell at the TV while you run a stop watch to kick off your evening. This is also a sure fire lock if I’ve ever seen one. I have seen lines from 1:45 and 1:50 to which I say GIMME ALL THE MONEY. This line could be 2:30 and I’d still take the over! Over the past 15 years there have been 6 times that the anthem went over 2 minutes. Three of those artists were Alicia Keys, Jennifer Hudson and Aretha Franklin. To those of you who may not know, this year Gladys Knight is performing and she has some similarities to the aforementioned artists… Gladys is also known as, “THE EMPRESS OF SOUL” who has been quoted as saying “I AM HERE TO GIVE THE ANTHEM BACK ITS VOICE.” She is going to sing her fucking face off pouring every ounce of soul into every single note possible. You may need to take a sick day on Monday because this game may not end until 2 am eastern time because kick off wo’nt be until 10:30 with the way Mrs. Knight is going to sing the greatest song in the history of the world!
MY BET- HAMMER THE FUCKING OVER!!
BONUS- There is also a prop bet on if Gladys forgets/screws up any of the words in the anthem. If you want more free money bet NO, she is a classy 74-year-old woman who is used to performing in front of big crowds. Also, she isn’t trying to “give the anthem its voice back” by screwing up the words
Circling back to the game itself: between the lowest odds in margin of victory being Patriots win by 22 or more, the 3 unanswered scores, the early professional money on the Pats and the pure history of the Pats always playing close Super Bowls, I think that Vegas might be saying that they would not be shocked if this is a blowout victory by the Patriots. So bow down and brace yourself for Brady having more Super Bowl wins than the Texans, Jaguars, Lions, Browns, Vikings, Bills, Bengals, Panthers, Chargers, Falcons, Titans, Cardinals, Eagles, Rams, Seahawks, Cheifs and Jets COMBINED. And yes, I just listed half the teams in the entire NFL with whom Brady is currently tied with.
These picks are my own. If you take the same bets and lose money, good! Then you will share in my misery! If you take the same bets and win, then good on ya for ponying up the dough. If you take opposite bets and win then, suck my dick! And if you take opposite bets and lose then HA! I told you so!
Go my children and enjoy all the beer, wings, chips and everything else that this gluttonous country indulges in and brace yourself for another wonderful season of THROAT CULTURE
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